Gold May Be Getting Interesting
The situation with gold appears to be getting interesting. However, despite calls by some of a gold bottom, it is likely too early to say that the low has been achieved.
Above is an experimental chart. Have been looking over the past few days at some different methods to determine support and resistance levels as well as well as methods to gauge price direction.
Whether or not any of these methods pan out or not remains to be seen, but you will likely be seeing more of these charts in the future. If nothing else, they do get at some key support and resistance levels which allow, in turn, Fibonacci levels to be set.
The recent spike in the gold price, interestingly, ran smack dab into the 0.382 Fibonacci level at $1,259.90 and proceeded to reverse lower. In fact, the price reversed taking out the next lower 0.5 level at $1,218.90.
The next level down is 0.618 or $1,177.90 - a level which gold has danced around either side a number of times during the past several years.
Another interesting level to consider if the 0.236 or $1,310.60 which is near the level mentioned by Martin Armstrong , aka The Forecaster.
$1,310.60 falls near a resistance line drawn from May of 2011, near the point where the gold price went parabolic. That isn't to say that breaking the resistance line would result in something similar now. The gold price in 2011 broke through a much steeper rising (rather than falling as is the case now) resistance line.
Whether or not gold continues to rise toward $1,310.60 or not likely doesn't change the fact that it has not yet broken its overall trend lower.
There is good reason to suspect that the first real opportunity for gold to bottom doesn't occur until late 2018 to 2019 or beyond. The 2018 date is new and a bit earlier than some of the previous dates discussed here. Barring some drastic change, late 2018 would be the earliest anticipated date for gold to make a bottom. Keep in mind, a bottom could occur later. Conceivably, the bottom might now be seen until 2021-2023 or beyond.
Much, obviously, depends on future price action and how the gold price reacts as it nears key levels.
For now, there is nothing that has, from a technical perspective, fundamentally changed that would indicate the trend lower has reversed. Eventually, the trend will change. For now, if you can wait, your patience in waiting for the gold price to bottom will likely be rewarded.
Chart Analysis uses a combination of technical analysis and cycles to provide insight into the future direction of precious metals, currencies, stock indices and more.