Lost in the excited chatter about the move of gold to above $1,260.00 by the many gold salesmen was any historical perspective or insightful technical analysis.

Generally, those with a vested interesting in selling the retail public the shiny metal want to sell it today and will twist the chart into whatever golden pretzel they believe it needs to be in order to separate their marks from their "worthless fiat".

However, anything more than a cursory analysis of the gold market should make it obvious that the parallels between the market that topped in 1980 and the one that recently topped in 2011 are quite striking.

So called fundamental analysts of gold get the story wrong so frequently that it becomes difficult to believe they are blind to the patterns right in front of their eyes. Either that or they willfully ignore what is right there at the end of their noses preferring to sing in unison from the same hymnal rather than admit that there may be the slightest defect in their world view which remains ever fixed and unamenable to facts.

So, it's sadly unsurprising that, despite the steady drubbing of the gold price since 2011 those in the business of selling gold to the retail public remain impervious to any ideas that don't involve a dark and nefarious conspiracy to suppress price.

But, the truth - or at least something in close proximity to it - is much simpler. All prices are cyclical. Yes, even (gasp) the gold price has a cycle. However, that cycle will be a subject for another day.

Our focus here is on a repeating patter. Here is that pattern after the 1980 high in the gold price. Notice where on the 1/2 Gann Angle gold failed to reach the line at the upper red arrow. After this failure of price to reach higher, it moved lower - eventually touching and dipping below the 1/1 line.

That brings us to today. The recent move of gold above the $1,260 level had the gold salesman nattering that surely a bottom was in for the gold price. Finally, years after proclaiming the imminent demise of the U.S. Dollar, the gold price would renew its ascent as the dollar burned. But, something odd happened on the way to the dollar funeral - gold moved up near the 1/2 Gann Angle and then reversed lower. Now, with the 1980 gold market as our guide, and the tendency of price to move in not too mysterious ways from one Gann Angle to the other, we are staring at the fairly obvious idea that gold moves lower to the 1/1 line as it did during the unraveling of that bull market. The declining channel in gold is market by the three lower red arrows and it wouldn't be surprising for the price to reach anywhere from the top to the bottom of the channel in the vicinity of the 1/1 line. And yes, that means a gold price below or substantially below $1,000 per ounce.

But, don't expect that the gold salesmen will let history, patterns or cycles change their view that gold must move higher because - well - it must. Regardless, there is one more chart worth looking at.

There are a few noteworthy elements of this chart featuring STARC Bands and Bollinger Bands:

1. When the top Red STARC Band reaches above the shaded Bollinger Band, that tends to fall pretty near a peak in the gold price;

2. When the gold price rises above the top Bollinger Band, that tends to fall near a peak in gold price;

3. When the Green STARC Band climbs up near the middle of the Bollinger Bands there tends to be a sharp and / or prolonged decline in the price. Take a look at 2011 and 2012 for examples of this;

4. When the price rises above the Red STARC Band, as it did in 2011, the price declines. There is only one example on this portion of the chart, but it was a steep decline;

5. These extreme episodes of the price extending upward are balanced by an extreme move lower near the bottom Bollinger Band. Take note that said band is nearing the $1,000.00 level.

So, you can believe your "lying eyes" or the gold salesmen who have been getting it wrong for years on end. Don't let their inability, unwillingness, or lack of interest in reality dissuade you from believing what is so clearly right there in front of anyone willing to see it.