On January 26th we discussed the possibility of a sub 1,400.00 sub 1,400.00 SP500 by the end of 2017.

However, it looks like before that happens, we're likely to see a counter-trend move first.

Flipping back to our first chart, there are four support lines, between roughly the 1,895.00 to 1,915.00 levels.

This same rough level of support can be seen by looking at our pivot chart...

"Where is it?" you may be thinking...it's hidden from view, so let's remove the candles from the chart.

Covered up by the monthly SP500 candle are three pivot levels - two monthly and one yearly - ranging from just under 1,885.00 to just over 1,900.00.

So it appears that, for the moment, the SP500 has found its footing. However, it may be too early to breathe a sigh of relief just yet. Despite all of the worries about 2016 being 2008 all over again, it's probably something worse - 1914 only upside down. Certainly, the economic, political and geo-political instability from Europe to the Middle East to the United States reinforces the idea that the world could be sliding toward political revolution and / or war.

As was written previously...

The stock market has an approximately 102-year cycle. However, the cycle alternates, so while >December 1914 marked the beginning of a bull market after the U.S. stock market opened after >having closed due to WWI, the current cycle will be a (more or less) mirror image bear market.

It's going to be a long slog...

So, this bear isn't going to be a short, sweet yet painful bear market. This will be a full on bear. Most bear markets (bull markets for that matter) consist of 5 years (about 2 years up, a year down, and another 2 years up). So, we're looking at this bear market bottoming sometime around 2020. Yes, 2020.